Focus on... Ayanda

Hailing from Seaview in Kwazulu Natal, where she apparently can't actually see the sea view, Ayanda Mpama is one of the wild cards who bounced back from losing out in viewer votes to get another shot at the Top 12. Though she's stayed in the game this far, I think that was due more to the fact that some of the other contestants were more noticeably weaker, and she has been flying a little bit under the radar. Will she be so lucky again this week? (Hint: There's a reason I picked her for the first "Focus On...")

Her choice of song, to fit the Movie Magic theme, is Judy Garland's "Over the Rainbow". This could be another point on Randall's "Astute Song Choices" post, and I think combined with her relative weakness against the other contestants, this choice of song will contribute to her downfall.

In the group stages, she surprised me with her vocal ability, but since then, she hasn't been holding her own. She has an amazing stage presence, and an absolutely infectious smile, and those two things have helped contribute to her stay so far. But as the weakest talents begin falling out, personality and likeability just aren't going to be enough to secure her spot. "Over the Rainbow" is definitely going to be a make it or break it moment for her. While a clean and simple song, it is one that demands absolute perfection, and a clear, melodic voice. Coming close won't cut it, and if she doesn't nail it, I think it will spell her doom.

At last week's press conference, the question was raised regarding the fact that so far, the wild cards haven't been faring so well in the Top 12 round. Is there a connection? I definitely think there is. At this point, many people have established their favorites, and barring a surprisingly bad showing by that favorite, they're going to keep voting for them. It would be telling, I think, if we could get a glimpse at the numbers for the last 3 weeks, and see what the rankings were. I have a feeling there has been very little change, with most of the shifts being attributed to people moving their votes from an eliminated contestant to someone still in the game. I think most favorites were established during the Top 70 round, and people are sticking by those choices through thick and thin. So the contestants who didn't even get enough votes to secure a place in the Top 3 for their group (Jamie-Lee and Bonolo) have already fallen out, and those who just barely squeaked into the Top 3 (Nicky and Ayanda) now face the challenge of winning over enough viewers to keep them moving forward. To pull that off, they can't just keep doing as well as they have been, or even as well as the other contestants. They'll have to pull off a major coup, and streak past the competition. Does Ayanda have that in her? I don't think she does. I'm always willing to be proven wrong, though, so we can only see what happens.

So here's the quick breakdown of Ayanda, as I see it:

Strengths: Stage Performance, Personality
Weaknesses: Not as strong as the others, questionable versatility
Chance of Staying This Week: 3/10
Chance of Making It All the Way: 1/10